Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 32.6, Oklahoma State 17.2 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Oregon wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.4 points and 49.7 combined points.
Oregon (No. 6) is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 27 points per game (+7 per game). Oklahoma State is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 24 points per game (-14 per game).
Oregon's elite offense (4th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Oklahoma State's below-average defense (105th); that mismatch is where most of Oregon's projected points come from. Expect Oklahoma State to find it hard going: Oregon's elite defense (8th) outranks Oklahoma State's struggling offense (127th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon by 38 and Oklahoma State by 7 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oregon is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPNEWS/Disney+.
Result: Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39. Oklahoma State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon / Oklahoma State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -20.5 → Oregon -24.25 | 59 → 55.5 | -2150 / +1050 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -18.5 → Oregon -24.5 | 60.5 → 55.5 | -2100 / +1100 |
| Bovada | Oregon -22.5 → Oregon -24 | 57.5 → 55.5 | -2200 / +1000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -15.5 | 49.7 | 16% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -24 | 55.5 | 8% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -23 | 55.5 | 6% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma State win probability
- model 16% · market (no-vig) 8% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -15.4 · market Oregon -24.25 · difference +8.9 pts (Oklahoma State view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 55.5 · difference -5.8
Model margin is 8.9 pts more toward Oklahoma State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oregon 32.6, Oklahoma State 17.2 | Oregon 84%wrong winner | 23.4 | 20.3 |
| New formula | Oregon 43.0, Oklahoma State 11.3 | Oregon 97%wrong winner | 39.6 | 15.7 |
Final: Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oregon vs Oklahoma State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Oregon | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.9#11 | 14.2#134 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9#12 | 33.3#126 |
| Yards per play | 7.13#8 | 4.81#132 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.66#5 | 6.44#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.7#25 | 133.6#115 |
| Net passing yards per game | 252.1#43 | 176.8#115 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9#20 | 173.6#86 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.5#4 | 250.8#120 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#54 | 1.25#99 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.27#40 | 0.75#110 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#67 | 1.83#86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.13#14 | 1.83#76 |
| Stat | Oregon | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#26 | -0.16#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#24 | +0.12#125 |
| Success rate | 48.5%#12 | 35.2%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.8%#12 | 44.9%#113 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#20 | 9.3%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.2%#3 | 15.5%#132 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#22 | 13.8%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#12 | 15.6%#128 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.39#27 | 2.98#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.14#101 | 4.23#107 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#17 | own 26#133 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#35 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#97 | 64.5#94 |
| Stat | Oregon | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#40 | -0.12#132 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16#25 | -0.20#132 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#30 | +0.04#91 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#31 | +0.21#127 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.3%#17 | 36.5%#127 |
| Passing success rate | 48.6%#10 | 34.1%#128 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#40 | 18.5%#73 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#45 | 23.3%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#33 | 31.6%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0%#24 | 35.7%#112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#53 | 43.6%#102 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.6%#25 | 54.5%#105 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 74.3%#128 | 75.0%#129 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon schedule · Oklahoma State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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