Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 34.2, Nebraska 22.3 at Autzen Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Oregon wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 56.4 combined points.
Nebraska is 5-1, scoring 39.2 and allowing 15.2 points per game (+24 per game). Oregon is 3-2, scoring 41 and allowing 22 points per game (+19 per game).
Nebraska's strong offense (22nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) meets Oregon's elite defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Nebraska puts up. Oregon's elite offense (6th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.2 points against an average defense) meets Nebraska's strong defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oregon puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Nebraska by 11 and Oregon by 34 about 80% of the time.
Oregon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon by about 9.8. The game is on Fox.
Result: Nebraska 14, Oregon 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.9 points and the total by 25.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Nebraska / Oregon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -14 → Oregon -6.75 | 52 → 51 | +200 / -240 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -21.5 → Oregon -6.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +190 / -230 |
| Bovada | Oregon -6.5 → Oregon -7 | 52.5 → 51.5 | +210 / -250 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -12 | 56.4 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -7 | 51.0 | 68% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -7.5 | 52.0 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -11.9 · market Oregon -6.75 · difference +5.2 pts (Oregon view)
- Total
- model 56.4 · market 51 · difference +5.4
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Oregon than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Nebraska 22.3, Oregon 34.2 | Oregon 78%right winner | 8.9 | 25.4 |
| New formula | Nebraska 22.2, Oregon 34.0 | Oregon 78%right winner | 8.7 | 25.2 |
Final: Nebraska 14, Oregon 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Nebraska vs Oregon: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Nebraska | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.2#18 | 41.0#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.2#17 | 22.0#57 |
| Yards per play | 6.46#49 | 6.53#44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46#62 | 5.56#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 225.0#23 | 146.6#100 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.0#59 | 298.6#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.7#24 | 132.6#40 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.7#50 | 236.6#109 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#33 | 1.00#82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#25 | 1.60#11 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83#20 | 1.80#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#69 | 1.60#61 |
| Stat | Nebraska | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#23 | +0.10#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#9 | -0.05#25 |
| Success rate | 47.2%#36 | 41.4%#90 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.7%#4 | 38.8%#45 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#45 | 14.4%#35 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#39 | 10.4%#37 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#46 | 15.5%#28 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#46 | 13.3%#72 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.83#17 | 5.31#3 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.80#5 | 3.55#49 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 34#12 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#54 | own 30#83 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.8#16 | 68.2#44 |
| Stat | Nebraska | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#9 | +0.06#84 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#39 | +0.14#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#31 | -0.03#37 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#10 | -0.07#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.7%#33 | 43.3%#85 |
| Passing success rate | 45.5%#39 | 40.0%#92 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#40 | 14.4%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.2%#10 | 26.4%#114 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 16.7%#1 | 29.5%#70 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.8%#13 | 41.5%#72 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 23.9%#3 | 23.2%#1 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.9%#10 | 82.6%#4 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#38 | 40.0%#8 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Nebraska schedule · Oregon schedule · all Week 7 projections
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