Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 36.7, Illinois 20.8 at Gies Memorial Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Oregon wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.9 points and 57.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Oregon is 4-2, scoring 37 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+16.3 per game). Illinois is 3-3, scoring 31.8 and allowing 27.8 points per game (+4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Oregon's elite offense (8th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) against Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st). Oregon's elite defense (10th) should limit Illinois's strong offense (41st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon by 38 and Illinois by 7 about 80% of the time.
Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oregon is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on BTN.
Result: Oregon 10, Illinois 21. Illinois won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 26.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon / Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -10.5 | 49.5 | -425 / +330 |
| Opening line | Oregon -13.5 | 53.5 | -580 / +420 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -10.5 | 49.5 | -410 / +320 |
| FanDuel | Oregon -10.5 | 49.5 | -430 / +330 |
| BetRivers | Oregon -11 | 50.5 | -455 / +325 |
| BetMGM | Oregon -10.5 | 48.5 | -425 / +333 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -16 | 57.5 | 15% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -10.5 | 49.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -11.5 | 50.8 | 22% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Illinois win probability
- model 15% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -15.9 · market Oregon -10.5 · difference -5.4 pts (Illinois view)
- Total
- model 57.5 · market 49.5 · difference +8.0
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Oregon than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oregon 36.7, Illinois 20.8 | Oregon 85%wrong winner | 26.9 | 26.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Oregon 10, Illinois 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oregon vs Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Oregon | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.9#11 | 29.4#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9#12 | 23.6#56 |
| Yards per play | 7.13#8 | 6.02#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.66#5 | 5.45#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.7#25 | 156.2#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 252.1#43 | 226.1#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 129.9#20 | 138.0#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.5#4 | 213.5#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#54 | 0.92#42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.27#40 | 0.92#79 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#67 | 2.08#59 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.13#14 | 2.46#113 |
| Stat | Oregon | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#26 | +0.07#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#24 | +0.08#111 |
| Success rate | 48.5%#12 | 48.1%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.8%#12 | 45.4%#121 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#20 | 13.5%#36 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.2%#3 | 10.0%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#22 | 13.1%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#12 | 14.3%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.39#27 | 4.49#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.14#101 | 4.57#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#17 | own 31#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#35 | own 29#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#97 | 63.5#102 |
| Stat | Oregon | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#40 | +0.01#85 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16#25 | +0.13#32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#30 | +0.02#85 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#31 | +0.12#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.3%#17 | 48.4%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 48.6%#10 | 47.8%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#40 | 19.9%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#45 | 38.0%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5%#33 | 36.9%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0%#24 | 44.4%#38 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#53 | 46.2%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.6%#25 | 58.9%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 74.3%#128 | 65.2%#105 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon schedule · Illinois schedule · all Week 8 projections
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