Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 55.2, Portland State 5.1 at Autzen Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Oregon wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 50.1 points and 60.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Portland State is 0-3, scoring 22.3 and allowing 43.7 points per game (-21.4 per game). Oregon (No. 21) is 1-1, scoring 32.5 and allowing 33 points per game (-0.5 per game).
Portland State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Oregon's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon by 28 and Oregon by 73 about 80% of the time.
Oregon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon by about 48. The game is on BTN.
Result: Portland State 0, Oregon 84. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 33.9 points and the total by 23.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Portland State / Oregon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -57.5 → Oregon -58.5 | 67.25 → 71.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Oregon -57.5 → Oregon -58.5 | 66.5 → 71.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Oregon -57.5 → Oregon -58.5 | 68 → 71.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -50 | 60.3 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -58.5 | 71.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -57.5 | 70.0 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Oregon -50.1 · market Oregon -58.5 · difference -8.4 pts (Oregon view)
- Total
- model 60.3 · market 71.5 · difference -11.2
Model margin is 8.4 pts more toward Portland State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Portland State 5.1, Oregon 55.2 | Oregon 100%right winner | 33.9 | 23.7 |
| New formula | Portland State 1.5, Oregon 62.4 | Oregon 100%right winner | 23.1 | 20.0 |
Final: Portland State 0, Oregon 84. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Portland State vs Oregon: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Portland State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3 | 32.5#64 |
| Points allowed per game | 43.7 | 33.0#123 |
| Yards per play | 5.11 | 6.51#60 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.07 | 6.21#109 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.7 | 120.0#120 |
| Net passing yards per game | 246.7 | 277.0#35 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 207.7 | 173.5#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.3 | 295.0#131 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.00#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00#65 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.50#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 2.50#109 |
| Stat | Portland State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.04#94 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.25 | -0.09#23 |
| Success rate | 43.8% | 39.3%#104 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.3% | 40.4%#70 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 13.9%#47 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 18.0% | 9.9%#40 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 13.2%#85 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 11.5%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.18 | 4.46#47 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.19 | 3.93#78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 24 | own 36#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | own 30#91 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3 | 61.0#96 |
| Stat | Portland State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.06#76 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.03#88 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.05#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.33 | -0.22#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 40.8%#96 |
| Passing success rate | 43.4% | 38.4%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.6% | 12.2%#20 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.7% | 28.6%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 41.7% | 23.3%#27 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3% | 34.6%#105 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5% | 30.3%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.2% | 80.0%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 31.3% | 41.7%#22 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Portland State schedule · Oregon schedule · all Week 3 projections
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