Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 36.1, Louisiana 18.3 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: USC wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.8 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Louisiana is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 7 points per game (+31 per game). USC (No. 14) is 2-0, scoring 40.5 and allowing 13 points per game (+27.5 per game).
USC's strong defense (15th) should limit Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: USC's elite offense (12th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.2 points against an average defense) against Louisiana's below-average defense (95th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana by 5 and USC by 40 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour USC by about 15.7. The game is on BTN.
Result: Louisiana 30, USC 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.2 points and the total by 24.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana / USC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -29.75 → USC -30.75 | 61.75 → 58.5 | +1700 / -7500 |
| Bovada | USC -31 | 60 → 58.5 | +1600 / -10000 |
| DraftKings | USC -28.5 → USC -30.5 | 63.5 → 58.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | USC win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -18 | 54.4 | 88% |
| Market consensus | USC -31 | 58.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | USC -29 | 58.4 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- USC win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model USC -17.8 · market USC -30.75 · difference -12.9 pts (USC view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 58.5 · difference -4.1
Model margin is 12.9 pts more toward Louisiana than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana 18.3, USC 36.1 | USC 88%right winner | 1.2 | 24.6 |
| New formula | Louisiana 13.6, USC 44.6 | USC 97%right winner | 12.0 | 20.8 |
Final: Louisiana 30, USC 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana vs USC: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Louisiana | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.0#80 | 35.8#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2#96 | 23.0#51 |
| Yards per play | 5.51#100 | 7.32#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19#107 | 5.88#75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 189.0#38 | 178.4#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.5#120 | 289.8#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.2#110 | 153.8#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.5#67 | 205.7#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#80 | 1.23#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#66 | 1.23#43 |
| Sacks per game | 1.62#99 | 2.31#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#60 | 1.00#9 |
| Stat | Louisiana | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#98 | +0.21#3 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#93 | +0.01#75 |
| Success rate | 40.2%#101 | 48.7%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#108 | 45.0%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#84 | 17.0%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#53 | 12.2%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#84 | 11.5%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#86 | 10.0%#16 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#99 | 4.68#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#19 | 3.92#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#95 | own 28#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#108 | own 28#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5#104 | 63.9#98 |
| Stat | Louisiana | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#33 | +0.04#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#121 | +0.38#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#105 | +0.05#103 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#83 | -0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#87 | 45.6%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0%#130 | 51.5%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6%#96 | 16.0%#32 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#114 | 36.8%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#64 | 33.2%#112 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.2%#67 | 53.4%#3 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2%#117 | 43.8%#104 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.9%#109 | 68.9%#28 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#38 | 64.1%#97 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana schedule · USC schedule · all Week 2 projections
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