Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 33.6, Rutgers 23.4 at SHI Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: USC wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.2 points and 57 combined points.
USC (No. 12) is 3-0, scoring 43.3 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+24.6 per game). Rutgers is 0-2, scoring 21 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-11.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: USC's elite offense (11th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37 points against an average defense) against Rutgers's below-average defense (108th). USC's strong defense (24th) should limit Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between USC by 33 and Rutgers by 12 about 80% of the time.
Rutgers gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. USC is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: USC 42, Rutgers 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 20.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (USC / Rutgers) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -24.5 → USC -21 | 57.5 → 59 | -2700 / +1100 |
| DraftKings | USC -24.5 → USC -21 | 57.5 → 59.5 | -2100 / +1100 |
| Bovada | USC -24.5 → USC -21 | 57.5 → 58.5 | -3300 / +1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rutgers win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -10 | 57.0 | 25% |
| Market consensus | USC -21 | 59.0 | 8% |
| Blended projection | USC -19.5 | 59.0 | 9% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rutgers win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 8% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model USC -10.2 · market USC -21 · difference +10.8 pts (Rutgers view)
- Total
- model 57.0 · market 59 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 10.8 pts more toward Rutgers than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | USC 33.6, Rutgers 23.4 | USC 75%right winner | 3.2 | 20.0 |
| New formula | USC 39.7, Rutgers 22.5 | USC 86%right winner | 10.2 | 14.7 |
Final: USC 42, Rutgers 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
USC vs Rutgers: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | USC | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.3#29 | 21.0#111 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7#62 | 32.5#122 |
| Yards per play | 7.18#32 | 5.80#89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99#55 | 6.56#118 |
| Rushing yards per game | 176.7#73 | 110.0#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 338.0#10 | 267.0#41 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 106.7#43 | 172.0#104 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 142.7#28 | 228.0#94 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33#104 | 4.00#138 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#86 | 1.00#60 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#76 | 1.00#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#34 | 4.00#135 |
| Stat | USC | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.35#3 | -0.14#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#26 | +0.12#112 |
| Success rate | 58.9%#3 | 39.1%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 30.3%#8 | 45.1%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#51 | 10.4%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.1%#14 | 13.1%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#88 | 12.3%#102 |
| Havoc allowed | 6.5%#2 | 21.7%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.33#11 | 2.55#132 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.67#116 | 4.91#123 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#82 | own 30#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#43 | own 32#110 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#30 | 65.0#81 |
| Stat | USC | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#104 | -0.18#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.76#2 | -0.11#118 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.20#12 | +0.11#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#87 | +0.12#98 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.6%#39 | 35.7%#119 |
| Passing success rate | 68.4%#2 | 42.4%#74 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#88 | 22.8%#121 |
| Passing-down success rate | 51.2%#3 | 35.5%#34 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0%#51 | 33.3%#105 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 65.7%#6 | 30.4%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#52 | 34.8%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 82.4%#14 | 57.1%#99 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#81 | 57.1%#61 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: USC schedule · Rutgers schedule · all Week 3 projections
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