Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 39.6, San José State 20 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: USC wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.6 points and 59.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
San José State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. USC has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect San José State to find it hard going: USC's strong defense (36th) outranks San José State's struggling offense (121st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense). USC's elite offense (12th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over San José State's below-average defense (100th); that mismatch is where most of USC's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 3 and USC by 42 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour USC by about 17.5. The game is on NBC.
Result: San José State 26, USC 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.6 points and the total by 8.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San José State / USC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -35.5 → USC -37.25 | 57.5 → 61 | +4250 / -100000 |
| Bovada | USC -35.5 → USC -37 | 57.5 → 60.5 | +3500 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | USC -35.5 → USC -37.5 | 61.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | USC win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -19.5 | 59.6 | 90% |
| Market consensus | USC -37.5 | 61.0 | 98% |
| Blended projection | USC -34.5 | 60.9 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- USC win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model USC -19.6 · market USC -37.25 · difference -17.6 pts (USC view)
- Total
- model 59.6 · market 61 · difference -1.4
Model margin is 17.6 pts more toward San José State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San José State 20.0, USC 39.6 | USC 90%right winner | 3.6 | 8.4 |
| New formula | San José State 6.8, USC 51.8 | USC 100%right winner | 29.0 | 9.4 |
Final: San José State 26, USC 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San José State vs USC: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San José State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#113 | 35.8#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.5#121 | 23.0#51 |
| Yards per play | 6.39#30 | 7.32#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#96 | 5.88#75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.5#120 | 178.4#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 300.5#7 | 289.8#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.6#75 | 153.8#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.9#117 | 205.7#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#135 | 1.23#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#100 | 1.23#43 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 2.31#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#5 | 1.00#9 |
| Stat | San José State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#70 | +0.21#3 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#97 | +0.01#75 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#53 | 48.7%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2%#77 | 45.0%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#80 | 17.0%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#69 | 12.2%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 8.7%#132 | 11.5%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#50 | 10.0%#16 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.20#126 | 4.68#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38#119 | 3.92#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#121 | own 28#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#127 | own 28#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8#58 | 63.9#98 |
| Stat | San José State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#59 | +0.04#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#76 | +0.38#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#52 | +0.05#103 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#118 | -0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#35 | 45.6%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 40.3%#79 | 51.5%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#71 | 16.0%#32 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#59 | 36.8%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.8%#60 | 33.2%#112 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#35 | 53.4%#3 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#47 | 43.8%#104 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.2%#96 | 68.9%#28 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.3%#76 | 64.1%#97 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San José State schedule · USC schedule · all Week 1 projections
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