Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 33.7, Washington 23.7 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 5. That is a solid edge: USC wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 57.4 combined points.
Washington is 3-1, scoring 28 and allowing 16.8 points per game (+11.2 per game). USC (No. 18) is 4-1, scoring 39.8 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+13.4 per game).
Washington's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.5 points against an average defense) meets USC's strong defense (39th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Washington puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: USC's elite offense (9th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.4 points against an average defense) against Washington's strong defense (30th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington by 13 and USC by 33 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour USC by about 7.9. The game is on NBC.
Result: Washington 21, USC 25. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 11.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington / USC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -10 → USC -8.25 | 56.5 → 58.25 | +277.5 / -360 |
| DraftKings | USC -10 → USC -7.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +250 / -310 |
| Bovada | USC -10 → USC -9 | 55.5 → 58 | +305 / -410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | USC win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -10 | 57.4 | 74% |
| Market consensus | USC -8.5 | 58.3 | 75% |
| Blended projection | USC -8.5 | 58.4 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- USC win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model USC -10 · market USC -8.25 · difference +1.8 pts (USC view)
- Total
- model 57.4 · market 58.25 · difference -0.9
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward USC than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Washington 23.7, USC 33.7 | USC 74%right winner | 6.0 | 11.4 |
| New formula | Washington 24.2, USC 33.3 | USC 73%right winner | 5.1 | 11.5 |
Final: Washington 21, USC 25. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Washington vs USC: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0#84 | 39.8#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.8#34 | 26.4#99 |
| Yards per play | 6.34#63 | 6.95#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.94#36 | 6.36#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 121.5#124 | 169.4#70 |
| Net passing yards per game | 274.5#32 | 321.0#10 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 123.3#40 | 123.6#42 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.3#54 | 240.0#108 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#62 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.75#11 | 0.80#78 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#52 | 1.20#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#109 | 1.00#29 |
| Stat | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#100 | +0.32#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#61 | +0.15#116 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#91 | 53.6%#3 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#68 | 40.9%#76 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#69 | 15.4%#23 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#82 | 11.9%#78 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#28 | 11.9%#110 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#67 | 8.8%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.81#98 | 4.77#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#72 | 5.28#133 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#48 | own 31#58 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#79 | own 25#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5#99 | 70.6#27 |
| Stat | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#116 | +0.11#60 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#75 | +0.53#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#28 | -0.02#48 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#93 | +0.32#127 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.4%#97 | 48.7%#33 |
| Passing success rate | 46.9%#44 | 58.3%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9%#108 | 17.0%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3%#91 | 48.1%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9%#76 | 37.5%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7%#113 | 53.6%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.9%#27 | 41.5%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.2%#109 | 67.9%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.7%#80 | 68.4%#104 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington schedule · USC schedule · all Week 5 projections
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