Matchup analysis
Our model projects Indiana 33, USC 20 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Indiana wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.4 points and 52.5 combined points.
USC is 6-2 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.8 and allowing 25 points per game (+7.8 per game). Indiana (No. 4) is 7-1 against the 28th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.6 and allowing 12 points per game (+21.6 per game).
USC's elite offense (12th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) meets Indiana's elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points USC puts up. Indiana's elite offense (9th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over USC's strong defense (36th); that mismatch is where most of Indiana's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between USC by 9 and Indiana by 36 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana by about 11.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (USC / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -10 | 58.5 | +350 / -455 |
| DraftKings | Indiana -10 | 58.5 | +350 / -455 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -13.5 | 52.5 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -10 | 58.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -10.5 | 58.3 | 76% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana -13.4 · market Indiana -10 · difference +3.4 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 52.5 · market 58.5 · difference -6.0
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Indiana than the market.
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USC vs Indiana: stat comparison
| Stat | USC | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.8#44 | 33.6#38 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#77 | 12.0#2 |
| Yards per play | 6.37#45 | 7.15#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#83 | 4.55#6 |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.6#106 | 200.1#32 |
| Net passing yards per game | 301.4#9 | 225.1#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 123.8#26 | 102.5#6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.0#83 | 184.3#34 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#85 | 0.25#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#102 | 1.13#39 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#91 | 3.50#5 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#41 | 1.38#40 |
| Stat | USC | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#14 | +0.14#41 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#99 | -0.11#8 |
| Success rate | 50.6%#7 | 45.0%#47 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#65 | 34.9%#13 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#66 | 16.7%#6 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#42 | 10.2%#25 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#103 | 15.9%#27 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#20 | 11.6%#32 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.48#36 | 4.31#49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.83#132 | 2.87#5 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#107 | own 32#20 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#44 | own 27#30 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.9#25 | 59.5#124 |
| Stat | USC | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#89 | +0.05#83 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37#6 | +0.25#22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#61 | -0.13#6 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#114 | -0.09#24 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#55 | 42.3%#88 |
| Passing success rate | 54.6%#3 | 48.2%#24 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#110 | 14.1%#19 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.4%#6 | 33.0%#42 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6%#107 | 30.3%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.0%#15 | 44.7%#37 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.6%#38 | 35.2%#35 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#42 | 67.7%#40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#105 | 41.2%#7 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: USC schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 11 projections
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