Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 29.9, Penn State 26.3 at Beaver Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: USC wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 56.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
USC (No. 19) is 5-1, scoring 37.3 and allowing 25.5 points per game (+11.8 per game). Penn State is 3-2, scoring 32 and allowing 16 points per game (+16 per game).
USC's elite offense (12th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Penn State's strong defense (29th); that mismatch is where most of USC's projected points come from. Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.4 points against an average defense) meets USC's strong defense (40th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Penn State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between USC by 26 and Penn State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Penn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. USC is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
Result: USC 31, Penn State 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.4 points and the total by 2.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (USC / Penn State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Penn State -0.25 → USC -0.25 | 56.25 → 54.5 | -115 / -105 |
| DraftKings | Penn State -1.5 → USC -1.5 | 56.5 → 54.5 | -115 / -105 |
| Bovada | USC -1 → Penn State -1 | 56 → 54.5 | -115 / -105 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Penn State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -3.5 | 56.2 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Pick'em | 54.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | USC -1 | 55.0 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Penn State win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model USC -3.6 · market USC -0.25 · difference -3.3 pts (Penn State view)
- Total
- model 56.2 · market 54.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward USC than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | USC 29.9, Penn State 26.3 | USC 59%right winner | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| New formula | USC 29.9, Penn State 26.6 | USC 59%right winner | 4.7 | 2.5 |
Final: USC 31, Penn State 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
USC vs Penn State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | USC | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.3#30 | 32.0#63 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5#89 | 16.0#25 |
| Yards per play | 6.66#45 | 6.24#64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.20#108 | 5.26#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 161.8#80 | 153.6#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 306.8#14 | 255.6#45 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.7#36 | 179.2#109 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.8#99 | 134.4#4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#78 | 0.60#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#99 | 1.00#60 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#86 | 1.40#107 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#26 | 1.20#38 |
| Stat | USC | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#7 | +0.04#94 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#110 | -0.11#12 |
| Success rate | 51.5%#6 | 40.9%#99 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#73 | 37.4%#32 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#47 | 13.2%#63 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#66 | 11.1%#51 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#112 | 16.5%#22 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.1%#3 | 12.8%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.77#24 | 4.40#53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.21#135 | 3.70#63 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#78 | own 34#25 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#11 | own 24#9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#28 | 65.6#67 |
| Stat | USC | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#73 | -0.11#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.45#4 | +0.18#42 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#72 | +0.11#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#112 | -0.35#2 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3%#49 | 38.6%#112 |
| Passing success rate | 55.5%#8 | 43.1%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#87 | 15.0%#46 |
| Passing-down success rate | 45.5%#3 | 28.6%#95 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4%#116 | 22.5%#11 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#23 | 39.4%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.5%#55 | 28.1%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#64 | 60.0%#90 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.2%#103 | 53.8%#53 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: USC schedule · Penn State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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