Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 28.6, Wisconsin 22.3 at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: USC wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 50.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
USC (No. 16) is 6-1, scoring 36.4 and allowing 25.1 points per game (+11.3 per game). Wisconsin is 4-2, scoring 27.5 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+10.8 per game).
USC's elite offense (12th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) meets Wisconsin's elite defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points USC puts up. Expect Wisconsin to find it hard going: USC's strong defense (36th) outranks Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between USC by 29 and Wisconsin by 16 about 80% of the time.
Wisconsin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. USC is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
Result: USC 7, Wisconsin 24. Wisconsin won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (USC / Wisconsin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -2.5 | 50.5 | -135 / +108 |
| Opening line | USC -1.5 | 52.5 | -120 / +100 |
| DraftKings | USC -1.5 | 50.5 | -125 / +105 |
| FanDuel | USC -2.5 | 50.5 | -138 / +115 |
| BetRivers | USC -2.5 | 50 | -136 / +110 |
| BetMGM | USC -2.5 | 50.5 | -135 / +110 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wisconsin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -6.5 | 50.9 | 34% |
| Market consensus | USC -2.5 | 50.5 | 46% |
| Blended projection | USC -3 | 51.3 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wisconsin win probability
- model 34% · market (no-vig) 46% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model USC -6.3 · market USC -2.5 · difference -3.8 pts (Wisconsin view)
- Total
- model 50.9 · market 50.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward USC than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | USC 28.6, Wisconsin 22.3 | USC 66%wrong winner | 23.3 | 19.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: USC 7, Wisconsin 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
USC vs Wisconsin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | USC | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.8#13 | 12.8#135 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#51 | 21.6#40 |
| Yards per play | 7.32#4 | 4.92#130 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.88#75 | 5.54#49 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.4#59 | 147.3#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.8#9 | 135.5#130 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.8#54 | 125.0#17 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.7#46 | 214.3#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.23#97 | 1.42#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.23#43 | 0.58#126 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31#40 | 2.58#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#9 | 2.33#110 |
| Stat | USC | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#3 | -0.18#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#75 | +0.01#71 |
| Success rate | 48.7%#11 | 35.7%#131 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#115 | 44.9%#114 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.0%#4 | 9.1%#134 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#65 | 11.9%#57 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#99 | 11.6%#97 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#16 | 14.8%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.68#12 | 2.45#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.92#74 | 3.50#31 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#120 | own 30#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#23 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.9#98 | 57.4#135 |
| Stat | USC | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#64 | -0.11#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#2 | -0.27#135 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#103 | -0.05#35 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#55 | +0.06#85 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.6%#46 | 35.2%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 51.5%#4 | 36.4%#114 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#32 | 17.0%#50 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.8%#15 | 26.5%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.2%#112 | 29.2%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.4%#3 | 33.5%#128 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.8%#104 | 40.3%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.9%#28 | 54.5%#106 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.1%#97 | 50.0%#17 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: USC schedule · Wisconsin schedule · all Week 8 projections
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