Matchup analysis
Our model projects Fresno State 34, TBD 18 at Valley Children's Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Fresno State wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.7 points and 52 combined points.
TBD has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Fresno State is 4-3 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+6.7 per game).
Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th) should limit TBD's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense). Expect Fresno State to find it hard going: TBD's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) outranks Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TBD by 6 and Fresno State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Fresno State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Fresno State by about 14.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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More: TBD schedule · Fresno State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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