Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Fresno State 25.3, San José State 23.7 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Fresno State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 49 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Fresno State is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 21 points per game (+3.5 per game). San José State is 2-1, scoring 27.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+0 per game).
Fresno State's below-average offense (93rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over San José State's below-average defense (117th); that mismatch is where most of Fresno State's projected points come from. Expect San José State to find it hard going: Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) outranks San José State's below-average offense (108th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fresno State by 24 and San José State by 21 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Fresno State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Fresno State 26, San José State 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.4 points and the total by 13.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fresno State / San José State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Fresno State -7.25 → Fresno State -4 | 51.5 → 47.5 | -236.5 / +194.5 |
| DraftKings | Fresno State -7.5 → Fresno State -4 | 52.5 → 47.5 | -198 / +164 |
| Bovada | Fresno State -7 → Fresno State -4 | 50.5 → 47.5 | -275 / +225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San José State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Fresno State -1.5 | 49.0 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Fresno State -4 | 47.5 | 33% |
| Blended projection | Fresno State -3.5 | 48.6 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San José State win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 33% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Fresno State -1.6 · market Fresno State -4 · difference +2.4 pts (San José State view)
- Total
- model 49.0 · market 47.5 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward San José State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fresno State 25.3, San José State 23.7 | Fresno State 54%right winner | 14.4 | 13.0 |
| New formula | Fresno State 27.7, San José State 23.7 | Fresno State 60%right winner | 12.0 | 15.4 |
Final: Fresno State 26, San José State 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fresno State vs San José State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Fresno State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5#98 | 27.7#88 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0#74 | 27.7#109 |
| Yards per play | 6.51#62 | 5.80#90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.17#107 | 5.39#75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.0#111 | 165.0#80 |
| Net passing yards per game | 208.5#85 | 239.0#61 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.0#74 | 134.7#76 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 276.5#128 | 246.0#106 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#96 | 0.67#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#39 | 1.33#48 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#132 | 2.00#72 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#76 | 0.67#35 |
| Stat | Fresno State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#60 | +0.04#100 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#127 | +0.04#75 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#88 | 39.6%#101 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.7%#135 | 44.9%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#106 | 13.1%#68 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#49 | 9.0%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#109 | 12.6%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.4%#14 | 13.0%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78#101 | 4.08#82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.10#21 | 4.08#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#108 | own 30#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#32 | own 29#74 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 52.0#133 | 69.7#38 |
| Stat | Fresno State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.21#135 | -0.10#122 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.42#9 | +0.17#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.26#5 | +0.11#110 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.52#138 | -0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.3%#130 | 37.9%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 53.1%#26 | 41.1%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4%#113 | 20.4%#104 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.7%#32 | 27.2%#105 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 45.0%#134 | 26.9%#50 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3%#114 | 34.2%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#73 | 43.2%#102 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#102 | 61.6%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.1%#63 | 76.1%#115 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fresno State schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.