Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Fresno State 24.3, Washington State 23.3 at Martin Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Fresno State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 47.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Fresno State is 3-1, scoring 28.3 and allowing 19 points per game (+9.3 per game). Washington State is 1-3, scoring 22.3 and allowing 24.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
Washington State's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) should limit Fresno State's below-average offense (96th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). Expect Washington State to find it hard going: Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) outranks Washington State's below-average offense (102nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fresno State by 24 and Washington State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Washington State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Fresno State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Fresno State 26, Washington State 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19 points and the total by 15.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fresno State / Washington State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington State -0.25 → Washington State -2.25 | 46 → 45 | +2.5 / -122.5 |
| DraftKings | Washington State -1.5 → Washington State -2.5 | 45.5 → 44.5 | +110 / -130 |
| Bovada | Fresno State -1 → Washington State -2 | 46.5 → 45.5 | -105 / -115 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Fresno State -1 | 47.6 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Washington State -2.5 | 45.0 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Washington State -1.5 | 46.3 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington State win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Fresno State -1 · market Washington State -2.25 · difference -3.2 pts (Washington State view)
- Total
- model 47.6 · market 45 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Fresno State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fresno State 24.3, Washington State 23.3 | Fresno State 53%right winner | 19.0 | 15.6 |
| New formula | Fresno State 23.5, Washington State 22.6 | Fresno State 52%right winner | 19.1 | 14.1 |
Final: Fresno State 26, Washington State 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fresno State vs Washington State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Fresno State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#83 | 22.3#109 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0#42 | 24.8#87 |
| Yards per play | 6.20#71 | 5.34#117 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32#111 | 6.23#109 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.5#73 | 165.3#79 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.0#94 | 149.8#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 186.5#113 | 181.0#112 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.8#96 | 225.8#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#44 | 1.25#114 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.25#6 | 0.75#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#70 | 1.00#128 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#37 | 2.50#115 |
| Stat | Fresno State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#84 | -0.01#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#76 | +0.04#73 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#109 | 38.1%#122 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2%#96 | 42.6%#92 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#40 | 10.9%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#83 | 14.2%#115 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#40 | 13.0%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3%#91 | 15.7%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.47#116 | 3.14#128 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.25#28 | 3.45#47 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#23 | own 26#127 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#5 | own 30#94 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.8#117 | 59.0#126 |
| Stat | Fresno State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#112 | -0.01#109 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#51 | -0.03#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#101 | +0.05#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#61 | +0.04#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0%#125 | 36.5%#119 |
| Passing success rate | 44.8%#59 | 38.5%#103 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.1%#135 | 21.9%#125 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.4%#54 | 24.3%#125 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5%#73 | 30.8%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.2%#106 | 28.3%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#74 | 42.9%#106 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.7%#124 | 65.3%#69 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.4%#56 | 55.5%#57 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fresno State schedule · Washington State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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