Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Fresno State 28.7, Sacramento State 20.2 at Valley Children's Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Fresno State wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.5 points and 48.9 combined points.
Sacramento State is 1-1, scoring 34.5 and allowing 14 points per game (+20.5 per game). Fresno State is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 39 points per game (-39 per game).
Expect Sacramento State to find it hard going: Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) outranks Sacramento State's below-average offense (115th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.1 points against an average defense). Fresno State's below-average offense (112th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Sacramento State's below-average defense (109th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Fresno State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 14 and Fresno State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Fresno State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Fresno State by about 6.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 37.5 points and the total by 3.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacramento State / Fresno State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Fresno State -18.25 → Fresno State -18 | 47.25 → 43.5 | +625 / -1000 |
| DraftKings | Fresno State -18.5 → Fresno State -17.5 | 48.5 → 43.5 | +600 / -900 |
| Bovada | Fresno State -18 → Fresno State -18.5 | 46 → 43.5 | +650 / -1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fresno State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Fresno State -8.5 | 48.9 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Fresno State -18 | 43.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Fresno State -16.5 | 45.1 | 87% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fresno State win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -16 pts
- Margin
- model Fresno State -8.5 · market Fresno State -18 · difference -9.5 pts (Fresno State view)
- Total
- model 48.9 · market 43.5 · difference +5.4
Model margin is 9.5 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacramento State 20.2, Fresno State 28.7 | Fresno State 71%right winner | 37.5 | 3.1 |
| New formula | Sacramento State 18.0, Fresno State 31.2 | Fresno State 79%right winner | 32.8 | 2.8 |
Final: Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacramento State vs Fresno State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sacramento State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 25.8#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 18.8#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.64 | 5.62#89 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 5.17#22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 273.3 | 180.0#56 |
| Net passing yards per game | 157.8 | 189.5#104 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.3 | 153.3#52 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.6 | 171.4#8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.31#105 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33 | 1.62#10 |
| Sacks per game | 3.25 | 1.77#89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92 | 1.46#35 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.05#115 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.06#33 |
| Success rate | 42.0% | 40.3%#100 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 38.7%#30 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 11.4%#99 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 11.1%#38 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 14.3%#23 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6% | 14.3%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.19 | 3.67#103 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.04 | 3.47#27 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 34#7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#61 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 65.7#76 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.08#120 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.02#91 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.02#51 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.11#26 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4% | 37.7%#120 |
| Passing success rate | 37.0% | 40.3%#80 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 20.2%#103 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1% | 30.9%#67 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9% | 27.0%#25 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4% | 39.4%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4% | 38.8%#51 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 44.0%#133 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.3% | 64.1%#98 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacramento State schedule · Fresno State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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