Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Fresno State 28.9, San Diego State 21.3 at Snapdragon Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Fresno State wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 50.1 combined points.
Fresno State is 4-2, scoring 28.3 and allowing 20 points per game (+8.3 per game). San Diego State is 2-4, scoring 22.8 and allowing 35 points per game (-12.2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's below-average defense (105th). Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) should limit San Diego State's below-average offense (101st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fresno State by 30 and San Diego State by 15 about 80% of the time.
San Diego State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Fresno State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Fresno State 23, San Diego State 26. San Diego State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fresno State / San Diego State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Fresno State -8.25 → Fresno State -6.75 | 44.25 → 46 | -300 / +242.5 |
| DraftKings | Fresno State -8.5 → Fresno State -6.5 | 43.5 → 46.5 | -270 / +220 |
| Bovada | Fresno State -8 → Fresno State -7 | 45 → 45.5 | -330 / +265 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Fresno State -7.5 | 50.1 | 31% |
| Market consensus | Fresno State -6.5 | 46.0 | 28% |
| Blended projection | Fresno State -7 | 47.3 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego State win probability
- model 31% · market (no-vig) 28% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Fresno State -7.6 · market Fresno State -6.75 · difference -0.8 pts (San Diego State view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 46 · difference +4.1
Model margin is 0.8 pts more toward Fresno State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fresno State 28.9, San Diego State 21.3 | Fresno State 69%wrong winner | 10.6 | 1.1 |
| New formula | Fresno State 28.1, San Diego State 22.0 | Fresno State 66%wrong winner | 9.1 | 1.1 |
Final: Fresno State 23, San Diego State 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fresno State vs San Diego State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#74 | 22.8#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.0#43 | 35.0#131 |
| Yards per play | 6.17#66 | 4.80#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.96#97 | 6.09#104 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.3#101 | 138.5#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.8#75 | 148.2#129 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.7#105 | 190.3#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.3#87 | 295.8#137 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#20 | 1.00#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#10 | 0.67#98 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17#56 | 1.67#92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17#33 | 1.33#45 |
| Stat | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#61 | -0.12#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.09#100 |
| Success rate | 42.3%#83 | 32.8%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6%#79 | 48.2%#131 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#56 | 9.3%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#78 | 11.2%#55 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#57 | 10.7%#127 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7%#62 | 14.1%#97 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#81 | 3.93#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.28#26 | 4.09#89 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#7 | own 29#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 22#1 | own 32#125 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.5#122 | 59.7#121 |
| Stat | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#115 | -0.01#108 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#30 | -0.25#135 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#98 | +0.02#68 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#43 | +0.17#105 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.3%#127 | 36.5%#120 |
| Passing success rate | 46.7%#36 | 28.2%#135 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.7%#136 | 21.4%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#24 | 23.8%#126 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5%#73 | 35.9%#120 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1%#101 | 27.3%#136 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#44 | 45.8%#121 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.6%#110 | 68.4%#44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.7%#31 | 60.7%#84 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fresno State schedule · San Diego State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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