Matchup analysis
Our model projects Fresno State 23, Utah State 21 at Maverik Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Fresno State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 43.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Fresno State is 4-3 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+6.7 per game). Utah State is 2-5 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 23 points per game (-8.1 per game).
Expect Fresno State to find it hard going: Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) outranks Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense). Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th) should limit Utah State's below-average offense (109th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fresno State by 25 and Utah State by 20 about 80% of the time.
Utah State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Fresno State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Fresno State vs Utah State: stat comparison
| Stat | Fresno State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.6#78 | 14.9#137 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#44 | 23.0#59 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#83 | 5.21#124 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01#94 | 5.00#25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.7#98 | 133.1#116 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.4#89 | 196.9#99 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.7#105 | 146.6#59 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.0#80 | 203.0#61 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#21 | 1.57#132 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#18 | 0.71#95 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#72 | 1.86#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#74 | 3.00#129 |
| Stat | Fresno State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#62 | -0.09#136 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#61 | -0.05#26 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#74 | 35.2%#134 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.4%#73 | 40.3%#63 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#53 | 11.3%#106 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#82 | 7.7%#5 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#34 | 11.7%#118 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#63 | 17.3%#134 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#77 | 2.50#138 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.06#11 | 3.20#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#10 | own 31#46 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#2 | own 27#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3#119 | 63.3#96 |
| Stat | Fresno State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#96 | -0.09#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#48 | -0.10#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#70 | -0.01#45 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#51 | -0.08#27 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.1%#113 | 35.8%#133 |
| Passing success rate | 44.4%#51 | 34.8%#126 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.9%#135 | 21.8%#127 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6%#31 | 29.8%#94 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6%#68 | 27.1%#38 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#108 | 35.4%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7%#49 | 42.7%#106 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3%#99 | 44.4%#133 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2%#18 | 42.1%#9 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fresno State schedule · Utah State schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.