Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Tech 30.4, Oregon State 17.5 at Reser Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Texas Tech wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.9 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Texas Tech (No. 13) is 1-0, scoring 33 and allowing 10 points per game (+23 per game). Oregon State is 0-1, scoring 20 and allowing 33 points per game (-13 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Texas Tech's strong offense (15th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.5 points against an average defense) against Oregon State's below-average defense (92nd). Texas Tech's elite defense (13th) should limit Oregon State's below-average offense (102nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 35 and Oregon State by 10 about 80% of the time.
Oregon State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
Result: Texas Tech 35, Oregon State 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 11.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Tech / Oregon State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -27 → Texas Tech -25.5 | 50.5 → 52.5 | -4100 / +1350 |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -27.5 → Texas Tech -25.5 | 49.5 → 52.5 | -3200 / +1400 |
| Bovada | Texas Tech -26.5 → Texas Tech -25.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | -5000 / +1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -13 | 47.9 | 20% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -25.5 | 52.5 | 7% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -23.5 | 52.8 | 5% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon State win probability
- model 20% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -12.9 · market Texas Tech -25.5 · difference +12.6 pts (Oregon State view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 52.5 · difference -4.6
Model margin is 12.6 pts more toward Oregon State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Tech 30.4, Oregon State 17.5 | Texas Tech 80%right winner | 1.9 | 11.1 |
| New formula | Texas Tech 35.1, Oregon State 18.9 | Texas Tech 84%right winner | 5.2 | 5.0 |
Final: Texas Tech 35, Oregon State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Tech vs Oregon State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.4#7 | 18.2#126 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.8#3 | 29.4#98 |
| Yards per play | 6.15#44 | 5.27#114 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.44#3 | 6.12#102 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.3#36 | 144.1#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.1#33 | 228.1#65 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 99.8#4 | 159.6#63 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.2#28 | 224.3#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#87 | 1.67#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#4 | 0.75#109 |
| Sacks per game | 2.71#13 | 1.17#121 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.79#72 | 2.00#87 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#72 | -0.08#121 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.32#1 | -0.00#58 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#65 | 41.6%#83 |
| Success rate allowed | 29.1%#1 | 38.5%#29 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#22 | 10.9%#117 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.0%#1 | 15.2%#129 |
| Havoc rate | 17.6%#1 | 12.5%#67 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#37 | 11.1%#43 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.27#37 | 3.12#127 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.84#3 | 3.96#80 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#1 | own 29#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#30 | own 33#132 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.1#8 | 70.6#23 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#58 | -0.07#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#81 | -0.10#111 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.27#1 | -0.06#28 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.36#1 | +0.06#84 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8%#74 | 42.1%#90 |
| Passing success rate | 42.3%#55 | 41.3%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8%#108 | 16.1%#35 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#48 | 27.6%#99 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.6%#2 | 29.8%#74 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.6%#7 | 38.7%#92 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.6%#7 | 34.6%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.6%#103 | 57.5%#94 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#69 | 55.6%#36 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Tech schedule · Oregon State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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