Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon State 33, Washington State 18.7 at Reser Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Oregon State wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.3 points and 51.6 combined points.
Washington State is 1-5, scoring 18.5 and allowing 23.7 points per game (-5.2 per game). Oregon State is 4-2, scoring 41.8 and allowing 22 points per game (+19.8 per game).
Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th) should limit Washington State's below-average offense (113th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Oregon State's strong offense (31st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) against Washington State's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington State by 8 and Oregon State by 37 about 80% of the time.
Oregon State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon State by about 12.2. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Washington State 30, Oregon State 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 26.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington State / Oregon State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon State -17.25 → Oregon State -18.5 | 52.5 → 52.25 | +625 / -975 |
| DraftKings | Oregon State -17.5 → Oregon State -18.5 | 52.5 | +650 / -1000 |
| Bovada | Oregon State -17 → Oregon State -18.5 | 52.5 → 52 | +600 / -950 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon State -14.5 | 51.6 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Oregon State -18.5 | 52.3 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Oregon State -18 | 52.8 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon State win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon State -14.3 · market Oregon State -18.5 · difference -4.2 pts (Oregon State view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 52.25 · difference -0.6
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward Washington State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Washington State 18.7, Oregon State 33.0 | Oregon State 83%right winner | 3.7 | 26.4 |
| New formula | Washington State 18.1, Oregon State 33.5 | Oregon State 85%right winner | 2.5 | 26.4 |
Final: Washington State 30, Oregon State 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Washington State vs Oregon State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Washington State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.5#123 | 41.8#11 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7#73 | 22.0#59 |
| Yards per play | 4.79#135 | 7.27#11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#81 | 5.23#47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.8#109 | 147.0#98 |
| Net passing yards per game | 145.5#130 | 387.7#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.5#77 | 156.0#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.2#77 | 187.5#44 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#105 | 0.50#37 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#122 | 1.17#44 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#123 | 2.50#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#128 | 1.33#48 |
| Stat | Washington State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#134 | +0.25#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#44 | +0.07#92 |
| Success rate | 34.8%#132 | 51.6%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#63 | 40.7%#69 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0%#134 | 15.7%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#98 | 10.2%#32 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2%#89 | 14.2%#69 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0%#126 | 10.2%#17 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.13#124 | 5.07#11 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.46#42 | 3.53#46 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#138 | own 29#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#134 | own 32#126 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0#119 | 73.5#10 |
| Stat | Washington State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#109 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17#131 | +0.35#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#47 | +0.10#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#49 | +0.04#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.7%#128 | 53.0%#8 |
| Passing success rate | 32.6%#127 | 50.9%#20 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1%#129 | 11.7%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.5%#135 | 39.0%#17 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.2%#61 | 29.7%#75 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 26.9%#137 | 50.0%#20 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.9%#71 | 37.8%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.1%#94 | 76.7%#12 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1%#27 | 45.5%#18 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington State schedule · Oregon State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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