Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oregon State 32, Utah State 20 at Reser Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Oregon State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.6 points and 51.8 combined points.
Utah State is 2-5 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 23 points per game (-8.1 per game). Oregon State is 5-2 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 42.7 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+19.6 per game).
Expect Utah State to find it hard going: Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th) outranks Utah State's below-average offense (109th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense). Oregon State's strong offense (34th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th); that mismatch is where most of Oregon State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah State by 11 and Oregon State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Oregon State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon State by about 9.5. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Utah State vs Oregon State: stat comparison
| Stat | Utah State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.9#137 | 42.7#4 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0#59 | 23.1#62 |
| Yards per play | 5.21#124 | 7.35#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.00#25 | 5.32#51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.1#116 | 156.1#90 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.9#99 | 381.4#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.6#59 | 159.6#79 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 203.0#61 | 200.4#55 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.57#132 | 0.43#20 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#95 | 1.14#37 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#83 | 2.57#31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#129 | 1.29#36 |
| Stat | Utah State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#136 | +0.23#12 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#26 | +0.08#87 |
| Success rate | 35.2%#134 | 49.0%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3%#63 | 39.7%#50 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#106 | 15.3%#20 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.7%#5 | 10.2%#27 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#118 | 13.4%#85 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.3%#134 | 10.3%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.50#138 | 4.82#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.20#18 | 3.78#64 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#46 | own 28#100 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#37 | own 31#112 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#96 | 73.1#7 |
| Stat | Utah State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#131 | +0.11#50 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#128 | +0.30#16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#45 | +0.09#99 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#27 | +0.07#81 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.8%#133 | 55.0%#1 |
| Passing success rate | 34.8%#126 | 48.3%#23 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#127 | 13.9%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.8%#94 | 35.6%#30 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#38 | 28.8%#60 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4%#113 | 48.3%#21 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7%#106 | 38.4%#66 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.4%#133 | 75.9%#9 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.1%#9 | 48.6%#30 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Utah State schedule · Oregon State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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