Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston 32.9, Oregon State 19.9 at TDECU Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Houston wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13 points and 52.7 combined points.
Oregon State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Houston has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Oregon State's strong offense (34th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) meets Houston's strong defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oregon State puts up. Houston's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th); that mismatch is where most of Houston's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon State by 10 and Houston by 36 about 80% of the time.
Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston by about 10.9. The game is on ESPNEWS/Disney+.
Result: Oregon State 20, Houston 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 0.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon State / Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Houston -18.5 → Houston -20.75 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +787.5 / -1375 |
| Bovada | Houston -18.5 → Houston -20.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +725 / -1300 |
| DraftKings | Houston -18.5 → Houston -21 | 50.5 | +850 / -1450 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston -13 | 52.7 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Houston -21 | 50.5 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Houston -19.5 | 51.4 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Houston win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Houston -13 · market Houston -20.75 · difference -7.7 pts (Houston view)
- Total
- model 52.7 · market 50.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 7.7 pts more toward Oregon State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oregon State 19.9, Houston 32.9 | Houston 80%right winner | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| New formula | Oregon State 15.8, Houston 38.0 | Houston 90%right winner | 9.1 | 0.8 |
Final: Oregon State 20, Houston 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oregon State vs Houston: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Oregon State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.2#126 | 29.1#55 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.4#98 | 22.8#48 |
| Yards per play | 5.27#114 | 5.64#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.12#102 | 5.22#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.1#101 | 186.8#42 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.1#65 | 223.4#73 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.6#63 | 138.9#31 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.3#81 | 206.2#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#127 | 0.77#26 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#109 | 1.23#46 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#121 | 2.23#50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#87 | 1.31#22 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08#121 | -0.02#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#58 | -0.07#23 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#83 | 42.4%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5%#29 | 41.0%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#117 | 11.6%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2%#129 | 10.4%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#67 | 15.3%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1%#43 | 13.4%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.12#127 | 4.05#58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96#80 | 3.85#67 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#104 | own 31#38 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#132 | own 30#86 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.6#23 | 72.8#10 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#114 | -0.09#126 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#111 | +0.09#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#28 | -0.02#49 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#84 | -0.12#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1%#90 | 40.9%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#61 | 44.4%#34 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#35 | 19.5%#94 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#99 | 27.9%#92 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.8%#74 | 25.1%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7%#92 | 40.5%#77 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6%#17 | 36.9%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5%#94 | 71.1%#20 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#36 | 47.6%#10 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon State schedule · Houston schedule · all Week 1 projections
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