Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon State 30.5, San Diego State 20.5 at Reser Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Oregon State wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 51 combined points.
San Diego State is 2-3, scoring 24.6 and allowing 28.8 points per game (-4.2 per game). Oregon State is 3-2, scoring 37 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+13.4 per game).
Expect San Diego State to find it hard going: Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) outranks San Diego State's below-average offense (100th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack offense (50th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st); that mismatch is where most of Oregon State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego State by 13 and Oregon State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Oregon State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon State by about 7.9. The game is on USA Net.
Result: San Diego State 14, Oregon State 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 42 points and the total by 29.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego State / Oregon State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon State -14.25 → Oregon State -14.5 | 54.75 → 52.25 | +465 / -662.5 |
| Bovada | Oregon State -14 → Oregon State -14.5 | 56 → 52 | +430 / -625 |
| DraftKings | Oregon State -14.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +500 / -700 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon State -10 | 51.0 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Oregon State -14.5 | 52.3 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Oregon State -14 | 52.8 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon State win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon State -10 · market Oregon State -14.5 · difference -4.5 pts (Oregon State view)
- Total
- model 51.0 · market 52.25 · difference -1.2
Model margin is 4.5 pts more toward San Diego State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego State 20.5, Oregon State 30.5 | Oregon State 74%right winner | 42.0 | 29.0 |
| New formula | San Diego State 20.1, Oregon State 30.8 | Oregon State 76%right winner | 41.4 | 29.1 |
Final: San Diego State 14, Oregon State 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego State vs Oregon State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | San Diego State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.6#96 | 37.0#33 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8#111 | 23.6#74 |
| Yards per play | 5.06#129 | 7.31#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.84#92 | 5.52#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0#91 | 137.0#112 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.6#124 | 374.6#1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.0#112 | 176.0#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 264.4#128 | 206.8#73 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#79 | 0.60#55 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#77 | 1.20#41 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#81 | 3.00#20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60#68 | 1.40#59 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13#136 | +0.21#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#74 | +0.08#94 |
| Success rate | 33.1%#137 | 49.3%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8%#119 | 41.8%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#124 | 16.3%#13 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#52 | 10.8%#44 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#124 | 14.2%#69 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#94 | 10.5%#18 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.81#93 | 4.91#18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#58 | 3.41#34 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#55 | own 27#122 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 34#134 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2#102 | 70.0#30 |
| Stat | San Diego State | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#113 | +0.01#99 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.26#135 | +0.32#18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#52 | +0.09#101 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#92 | +0.06#76 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.0%#119 | 49.5%#24 |
| Passing success rate | 28.2%#135 | 49.2%#27 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1%#118 | 10.9%#3 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.7%#123 | 36.7%#24 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#106 | 31.3%#89 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.7%#131 | 44.1%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.5%#94 | 42.0%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#55 | 73.9%#19 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.4%#47 | 42.9%#16 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego State schedule · Oregon State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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