Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana 32.3, Northern Arizona 28 at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Week 6. That is a lean: Montana wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 60.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Montana is 5-1, scoring 37.2 and allowing 22.2 points per game (+15 per game). Northern Arizona is 4-2, scoring 27.7 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana by 27 and Northern Arizona by 18 about 80% of the time.
Northern Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Montana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Montana 44, Northern Arizona 49. Northern Arizona won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Montana / Northern Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana -9.5 | 64.5 | -268 / +208 |
| DraftKings | Montana -9.5 | 64.5 | -268 / +208 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana -4.5 | 60.3 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Montana -9.5 | 64.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | Montana -8.5 | 63.9 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Arizona win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Montana -4.3 · market Montana -9.5 · difference +5.2 pts (Northern Arizona view)
- Total
- model 60.3 · market 64.5 · difference -4.2
Model margin is 5.2 pts more toward Northern Arizona than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Montana 32.3, Northern Arizona 28.0 | Montana 61%wrong winner | 9.3 | 32.7 |
| New formula | Montana 31.8, Northern Arizona 27.3 | Montana 62%wrong winner | 9.5 | 33.9 |
Final: Montana 44, Northern Arizona 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Montana vs Northern Arizona: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Montana | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.0 | 31.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 31.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.57 | 6.08 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.15 | 6.81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 172.4 | 155.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 285.5 | 256.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.4 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 264.8 | 251.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 2.21 | 1.45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Montana | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 45.4% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 15.7% |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.39 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.6 | 67.8 |
| Stat | Montana | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.27 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.3% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 48.7% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 22.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6% | 35.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1% | 34.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 68.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana schedule · Northern Arizona schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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