Matchup analysis
Our model projects Montana 40, Eastern Washington 27 at Roos Field in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Montana wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.3 points and 66.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Montana is 5-3 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.8 and allowing 28 points per game (+9.8 per game). Eastern Washington is 2-6 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 38.1 points per game (-11.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana by 36 and Eastern Washington by 9 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Montana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Montana vs Eastern Washington: stat comparison
| Stat | Montana | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.8 | 27.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 38.1 |
| Yards per play | 7.16 | 5.51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 7.52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.8 | 148.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.6 | 283.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.5 | 227.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 271.1 | 245.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 3.38 |
| Stat | Montana | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 45.9% | 41.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 44.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9% | 15.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 14.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.50 | 3.51 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15 | 4.07 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4 | 78.4 |
| Stat | Montana | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.2% | 41.9% |
| Passing success rate | 49.0% | 44.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.9% | 29.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6% | 29.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1% | 43.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 42.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.1% | 43.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.9% | 57.8% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana schedule · Eastern Washington schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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