Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana 38.6, Northern Colorado 16.7 at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Montana wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.9 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northern Colorado is 2-3, scoring 25 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+1.2 per game). Montana is 4-1, scoring 37.4 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+13.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Colorado by 1 and Montana by 44 about 80% of the time.
Montana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana by about 19.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Colorado 14, Montana 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 5.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Colorado / Montana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana -26.5 → Montana -21.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +850 / -1820 |
| DraftKings | Montana -26.5 → Montana -21.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +850 / -1820 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Montana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana -22 | 55.2 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Montana -21.5 | 58.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Montana -21.5 | 58.4 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Montana win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Montana -21.9 · market Montana -21.5 · difference +0.4 pts (Montana view)
- Total
- model 55.2 · market 58.5 · difference -3.3
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Colorado 16.7, Montana 38.6 | Montana 92%right winner | 0.1 | 5.2 |
| New formula | Northern Colorado 16.1, Montana 38.6 | Montana 93%right winner | 0.6 | 4.7 |
Final: Northern Colorado 14, Montana 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Colorado vs Montana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 41.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.4 | 25.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 6.57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.20 | 6.15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.7 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.8 | 285.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 215.5 | 149.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.8 | 264.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 39.7% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.82 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 69.6 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.20 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 43.3% |
| Passing success rate | 40.2% | 48.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.1% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Colorado schedule · Montana schedule · all Week 5 projections
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