Matchup analysis
Our model projects Montana State 38, Montana 25 at Bobcat Stadium (MT) in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Montana State wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.8 points and 62.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Montana is 5-3 against the 58th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.8 and allowing 28 points per game (+9.8 per game). Montana State is 7-1 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.5 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+19.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana by 10 and Montana State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Montana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana State by about 10.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Montana vs Montana State: stat comparison
| Stat | Montana | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.8 | 39.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 20.4 |
| Yards per play | 7.16 | 6.97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66 | 5.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.8 | 209.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.6 | 230.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.5 | 141.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 271.1 | 235.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Montana | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.17 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 41.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9% | 11.0% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1% | 9.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.50 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15 | 2.22 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Montana | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.2% | 52.5% |
| Passing success rate | 49.0% | 52.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.9% | 34.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6% | 24.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1% | 45.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 37.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.1% | 55.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.9% | 48.5% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana schedule · Montana State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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