Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cal Poly 29, Idaho 24.7 at Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Cal Poly wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Idaho has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Cal Poly has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Idaho by 18 and Cal Poly by 27 about 80% of the time.
Cal Poly gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cal Poly by about 2.2. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Idaho 34, Cal Poly 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 18.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho / Cal Poly) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho -3.5 → Idaho -5.5 | 55.5 → 53.5 | -219 / +172 |
| DraftKings | Idaho -3.5 → Idaho -5.5 | 55.5 → 53.5 | -219 / +172 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cal Poly win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cal Poly -4.5 | 53.6 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Idaho -5.5 | 53.5 | 35% |
| Blended projection | Idaho -4 | 54.0 | 39% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cal Poly win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +26 pts
- Margin
- model Cal Poly -4.3 · market Idaho -5.5 · difference +9.8 pts (Cal Poly view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 53.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 9.8 pts more toward Cal Poly than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho 24.7, Cal Poly 29.0 | Cal Poly 61%right winner | 0.3 | 18.4 |
| New formula | Idaho 24.5, Cal Poly 30.4 | Cal Poly 63%right winner | 1.9 | 17.0 |
Final: Idaho 34, Cal Poly 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho vs Cal Poly: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.2 | 27.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 31.5 |
| Yards per play | 6.19 | 6.17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.4 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.4 | 263.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 185.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.4 | 254.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Idaho | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 38.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 44.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5% | 13.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 10.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 1.92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 2.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.2 | 65.8 |
| Stat | Idaho | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4% | 36.1% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 28.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4% | 36.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.6% | 25.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.9% | 38.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho schedule · Cal Poly schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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