Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Weber State 39.8, Portland State 29.2 at Stewart Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Weber State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.6 points and 69.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Portland State is 0-4, scoring 16.8 and allowing 53.8 points per game (-37 per game). Weber State is 2-2, scoring 35.5 and allowing 37 points per game (-1.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Portland State by 12 and Weber State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Weber State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Weber State by about 8.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Portland State 44, Weber State 41. Portland State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Portland State / Weber State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Weber State -6.5 → Weber State -7 | 65.5 → 64.5 | +261 / -346 |
| DraftKings | Weber State -6.5 → Weber State -7 | 65.5 → 64.5 | +261 / -346 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Weber State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Weber State -10.5 | 69.1 | 76% |
| Market consensus | Weber State -7 | 64.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | Weber State -7.5 | 64.4 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Weber State win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Weber State -10.6 · market Weber State -7 · difference +3.6 pts (Weber State view)
- Total
- model 69.1 · market 64.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward Weber State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Portland State 29.2, Weber State 39.8 | Weber State 76%wrong winner | 13.6 | 15.9 |
| New formula | Portland State 28.0, Weber State 39.5 | Weber State 78%wrong winner | 14.5 | 17.4 |
Final: Portland State 44, Weber State 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Portland State vs Weber State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Portland State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.2 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 42.7 | 38.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.25 | 6.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 159.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.4 | 182.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 265.2 | 201.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.5 | 233.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.17 |
| Stat | Portland State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.1% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.9% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 14.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.87 | 1.81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.30 | 2.10 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 63.7 |
| Stat | Portland State | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.0% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 35.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 29.6% | 20.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 23.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.8% | 25.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5% | 38.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.2% | 35.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.5% | 27.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.1% | 36.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Portland State schedule · Weber State schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.