Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cal Poly 35.9, Weber State 28.2 at Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Cal Poly wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 64.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Weber State is 2-3, scoring 36.6 and allowing 38.4 points per game (-1.8 per game). Cal Poly is 3-2, scoring 29.6 and allowing 29.2 points per game (+0.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Weber State by 15 and Cal Poly by 30 about 80% of the time.
Cal Poly gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cal Poly by about 5.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Weber State 42, Cal Poly 34. Weber State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Weber State / Cal Poly) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Cal Poly -4.5 → Cal Poly -6 | 65.5 → 66.5 | +186 / -238 |
| DraftKings | Cal Poly -4.5 → Cal Poly -6 | 65.5 → 66.5 | +186 / -238 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cal Poly win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cal Poly -8 | 64.1 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Cal Poly -6 | 66.5 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Cal Poly -6.5 | 65.9 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cal Poly win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Cal Poly -7.8 · market Cal Poly -6 · difference +1.8 pts (Cal Poly view)
- Total
- model 64.1 · market 66.5 · difference -2.4
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Cal Poly than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Weber State 28.2, Cal Poly 35.9 | Cal Poly 70%wrong winner | 15.8 | 11.9 |
| New formula | Weber State 27.8, Cal Poly 35.2 | Cal Poly 69%wrong winner | 15.4 | 13.0 |
Final: Weber State 42, Cal Poly 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Weber State vs Cal Poly: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Weber State | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 27.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.3 | 31.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 6.17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.56 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.7 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.7 | 263.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.8 | 185.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.8 | 254.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 2.08 |
| Stat | Weber State | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 38.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 44.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 13.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.7% | 10.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.81 | 1.92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.10 | 2.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7 | 65.8 |
| Stat | Weber State | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 36.1% |
| Passing success rate | 35.0% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.8% | 28.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.4% | 36.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.9% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.0% | 25.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.9% | 38.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Weber State schedule · Cal Poly schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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