Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colorado 44.3, Weber State 11.3 at Folsom Field in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Colorado wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Weber State is 1-1, scoring 36 and allowing 38 points per game (-2 per game). Colorado is 1-0, scoring 14 and allowing 13 points per game (+1 per game).
Weber State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Colorado's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 10 and Colorado by 56 about 80% of the time.
Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colorado by about 30.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Weber State 21, Colorado 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2 points and the total by 17.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Weber State / Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colorado -34 → Colorado -38.5 | 54.5 → 57.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| DraftKings | Colorado -33.5 → Colorado -38.5 | 53.5 → 57.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | Colorado -34.5 → Colorado -38.5 | 55.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colorado -33 | 55.6 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Colorado -38.5 | 57.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Colorado -38 | 57.6 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Colorado -33 · market Colorado -38.5 · difference -5.5 pts (Colorado view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 57.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 5.5 pts more toward Weber State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Weber State 11.3, Colorado 44.3 | Colorado 98%right winner | 2.0 | 17.4 |
| New formula | Weber State 12.2, Colorado 45.2 | Colorado 98%right winner | 2.1 | 15.6 |
Final: Weber State 21, Colorado 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Weber State vs Colorado: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Weber State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 20.9#116 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.3 | 30.5#112 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 5.23#118 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.56 | 6.29#113 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.7 | 147.8#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.7 | 192.9#99 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.8 | 222.5#132 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.8 | 207.1#50 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 1.17#92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.08#64 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.17#122 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 3.33#130 |
| Stat | Weber State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.01#94 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.03#83 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 34.7%#133 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 43.0%#88 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 11.0%#111 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 14.7%#126 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7% | 11.9%#87 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 14.9%#122 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.81 | 4.12#47 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.10 | 4.08#94 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | own 29#86 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 31#109 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7 | 65.2#82 |
| Stat | Weber State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.01#79 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.03#96 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.00#65 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.08#98 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 35.1%#132 |
| Passing success rate | 35.0% | 34.4%#126 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1% | 22.4%#124 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.8% | 29.6%#81 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3% | 29.2%#66 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.4% | 37.6%#104 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.9% | 36.9%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.0% | 62.5%#59 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.9% | 65.9%#107 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Weber State schedule · Colorado schedule · all Week 2 projections
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