Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northern Arizona 35, Weber State 28 at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Week 11. That is a lean: Northern Arizona wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 63.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Weber State is 5-4 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 34.6 points per game (+1.3 per game). Northern Arizona is 6-2 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 30.1 points per game (+1.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Weber State by 16 and Northern Arizona by 29 about 80% of the time.
Northern Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Arizona by about 4.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Weber State vs Northern Arizona: stat comparison
| Stat | Weber State | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.9 | 31.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.6 | 30.1 |
| Yards per play | 6.31 | 6.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25 | 6.60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.1 | 160.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 251.0 | 232.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 223.3 | 172.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 257.6 | 290.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.78 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.89 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.56 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Weber State | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 41.7% | 44.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 49.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7% | 13.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.59 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Weber State | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0% | 48.8% |
| Passing success rate | 36.2% | 43.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9% | 20.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3% | 29.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.0% | 34.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4% | 33.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.6% | 48.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.3% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.3% | 68.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Weber State schedule · Northern Arizona schedule · all Week 11 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.