Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Colorado 27.7, Northeastern State 21.7 at Nottingham Field in Week 3. That is a lean: Northern Colorado wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6 points and 49.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Northeastern State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Northern Colorado is 0-3, scoring 21.7 and allowing 29.7 points per game (-8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northeastern State by 17 and Northern Colorado by 29 about 80% of the time.
Northern Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Colorado by about 3.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northeastern State 17, Northern Colorado 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0 points and the total by 9.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northeastern State 21.7, Northern Colorado 27.7 | Northern Colorado 65%right winner | 0.0 | 9.4 |
| New formula | Northeastern State 22.3, Northern Colorado 32.1 | Northern Colorado 72%right winner | 3.8 | 14.5 |
Final: Northeastern State 17, Northern Colorado 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northeastern State vs Northern Colorado: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northeastern State | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 49.0 | 28.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.91 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.74 | 6.20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 52.0 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.0 | 243.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 286.0 | 215.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 199.0 | 219.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 0.83 |
| Stat | Northeastern State | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 39.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.3% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 14.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 2.92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 66.3 |
| Stat | Northeastern State | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 12.5% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 20.0% | 40.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.6% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 15.4% | 36.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.3% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 49.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northeastern State schedule · Northern Colorado schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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