Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cal Poly 27.5, Northern Colorado 24 at Nottingham Field in Week 7. That is a lean: Cal Poly wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 51.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Cal Poly is 4-3, scoring 29.6 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-0.7 per game). Northern Colorado is 2-5, scoring 23 and allowing 26.6 points per game (-3.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cal Poly by 26 and Northern Colorado by 19 about 80% of the time.
Northern Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Cal Poly is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Cal Poly 18, Northern Colorado 28. Northern Colorado won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cal Poly / Northern Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Cal Poly -3 | 53.5 → 52.5 | -174 / +139 |
| DraftKings | Cal Poly -3 | 53.5 → 52.5 | -174 / +139 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cal Poly -3.5 | 51.4 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Cal Poly -3 | 52.5 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Cal Poly -3 | 53.0 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Colorado win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Cal Poly -3.5 · market Cal Poly -3 · difference -0.5 pts (Northern Colorado view)
- Total
- model 51.4 · market 52.5 · difference -1.1
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Cal Poly than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cal Poly 27.5, Northern Colorado 24.0 | Cal Poly 59%wrong winner | 13.5 | 5.4 |
| New formula | Cal Poly 27.2, Northern Colorado 24.1 | Cal Poly 58%wrong winner | 13.1 | 5.3 |
Final: Cal Poly 18, Northern Colorado 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cal Poly vs Northern Colorado: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Cal Poly | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.5 | 28.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.17 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 6.20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.2 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 263.8 | 243.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.2 | 215.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 254.5 | 219.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 0.83 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 38.1% | 39.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 43.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 10.1% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 14.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.92 | 3.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.29 | 2.92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8 | 66.3 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | -0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.1% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 40.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 36.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.0% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.7% | 49.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cal Poly schedule · Northern Colorado schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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