Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northern Arizona 32, Northern Colorado 19 at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Northern Arizona wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13 points and 51.9 combined points.
Northern Colorado is 3-6 against the 65th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-4.6 per game). Northern Arizona is 6-2 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 30.1 points per game (+1.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Colorado by 10 and Northern Arizona by 36 about 80% of the time.
Northern Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Arizona by about 10.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northern Colorado vs Northern Arizona: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.7 | 31.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 30.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.80 | 6.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.24 | 6.60 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.6 | 160.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.2 | 232.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.7 | 172.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 247.8 | 290.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.44 | 1.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 44.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 49.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4% | 13.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 11.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.28 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.88 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 63.0 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 48.8% |
| Passing success rate | 34.7% | 43.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 20.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 34.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 33.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.1% | 48.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.0% | 68.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Colorado schedule · Northern Arizona schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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