Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wyoming 36.8, Northern Colorado 5.1 at War Memorial Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Wyoming wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.6 points and 41.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Northern Colorado is 0-2, scoring 26 and allowing 34 points per game (-8 per game). Wyoming is 0-1, scoring 13 and allowing 35 points per game (-22 per game).
Northern Colorado plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Wyoming's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wyoming by 9 and Wyoming by 54 about 80% of the time.
Wyoming gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wyoming by about 29.5. The game is on MW+.
Result: Northern Colorado 13, Wyoming 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.6 points and the total by 7.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Colorado / Wyoming) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wyoming -22.5 → Wyoming -23.5 | 47.5 → 44.25 | +975 / -1900 |
| Bovada | Wyoming -22.5 → Wyoming -23.5 | 47.5 → 44 | +950 / -2000 |
| DraftKings | Wyoming -22.5 → Wyoming -23.5 | 47.5 → 44.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wyoming win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wyoming -31.5 | 41.9 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Wyoming -23.5 | 44.3 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Wyoming -25 | 45.4 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wyoming win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Wyoming -31.6 · market Wyoming -23.5 · difference +8.1 pts (Wyoming view)
- Total
- model 41.9 · market 44.25 · difference -2.4
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Wyoming than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Colorado 5.1, Wyoming 36.8 | Wyoming 98%right winner | 23.6 | 7.9 |
| New formula | Northern Colorado 10.2, Wyoming 37.5 | Wyoming 95%right winner | 19.3 | 13.7 |
Final: Northern Colorado 13, Wyoming 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Colorado vs Wyoming: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 16.0#131 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.4 | 20.5#33 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 5.00#128 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.20 | 5.28#31 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.7 | 151.1#87 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.8 | 182.4#112 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 215.5 | 183.4#98 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.8 | 172.4#12 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.00#69 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.33#32 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 1.17#125 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.83 | 1.58#48 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.09#122 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | -0.11#12 |
| Success rate | 39.7% | 39.0%#112 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 37.8%#23 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 10.2%#126 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 10.6%#34 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 12.3%#75 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 14.0%#112 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.82 | 2.98#132 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92 | 2.90#6 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 26#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 30#91 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 66.7#60 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.05#107 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.12#119 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.06#31 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | -0.16#17 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 38.4%#115 |
| Passing success rate | 40.2% | 38.6%#100 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 21.4%#118 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 27.4%#104 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 27.1%#27 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1% | 34.3%#124 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4% | 35.8%#27 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8% | 44.0%#134 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.1% | 51.0%#19 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Colorado schedule · Wyoming schedule · all Week 2 projections
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