Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UC Davis 35.9, Eastern Washington 26.5 at UC Davis Health Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: UC Davis wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.4 points and 62.3 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Eastern Washington is 1-4, scoring 25.4 and allowing 35.6 points per game (-10.2 per game). UC Davis is 3-2, scoring 31.4 and allowing 33.2 points per game (-1.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Washington by 13 and UC Davis by 32 about 80% of the time.
UC Davis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UC Davis by about 7.3. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Eastern Washington 38, UC Davis 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.6 points and the total by 24.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Washington / UC Davis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UC Davis -9.5 → UC Davis -8.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | +269 / -358 |
| DraftKings | UC Davis -9.5 → UC Davis -8.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | +269 / -358 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UC Davis win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UC Davis -9.5 | 62.3 | 73% |
| Market consensus | UC Davis -8.5 | 61.5 | 74% |
| Blended projection | UC Davis -8.5 | 61.4 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UC Davis win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model UC Davis -9.4 · market UC Davis -8.5 · difference +0.9 pts (UC Davis view)
- Total
- model 62.3 · market 61.5 · difference +0.8
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward UC Davis than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Washington 26.5, UC Davis 35.9 | UC Davis 73%right winner | 1.6 | 24.7 |
| New formula | Eastern Washington 25.3, UC Davis 35.4 | UC Davis 75%right winner | 0.8 | 26.3 |
Final: Eastern Washington 38, UC Davis 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Washington vs UC Davis: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Washington | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4 | 32.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2 | 30.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.12 | 7.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25 | 6.34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.9 | 200.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.3 | 277.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.4 | 198.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.3 | 236.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25 | 2.38 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 36.9% | 49.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 10.8% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 2.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7% | 51.3% |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 48.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 15.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 29.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.3% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.5% | 54.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Washington schedule · UC Davis schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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