Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San Diego 39.3, Davidson 23.8 at Torero Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: San Diego wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.5 points and 63 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Davidson is 2-3, scoring 24.4 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-9.2 per game). San Diego is 1-3, scoring 22.3 and allowing 48.3 points per game (-26 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Davidson by 7 and San Diego by 38 about 80% of the time.
San Diego gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour San Diego by about 13.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Davidson 14, San Diego 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 33.5 points and the total by 14.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Davidson / San Diego) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego -14.5 → San Diego -18.5 | 63.5 → 62.5 | +535 / -860 |
| DraftKings | San Diego -14.5 → San Diego -18.5 | 63.5 → 62.5 | +535 / -860 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San Diego -15.5 | 63.0 | 85% |
| Market consensus | San Diego -18.5 | 62.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | San Diego -18 | 62.3 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model San Diego -15.5 · market San Diego -18.5 · difference -3.0 pts (San Diego view)
- Total
- model 63.0 · market 62.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 3.0 pts more toward Davidson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Davidson 23.8, San Diego 39.3 | San Diego 85%right winner | 33.5 | 14.0 |
| New formula | Davidson 21.4, San Diego 40.6 | San Diego 90%right winner | 29.8 | 15.0 |
Final: Davidson 14, San Diego 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Davidson vs San Diego: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Davidson | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.2 | 28.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.6 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09 | 5.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.1 | 165.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.5 | 197.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 246.2 | 128.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.6 | 227.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 0.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 3.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 1.67 |
| Stat | Davidson | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 37.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 52.0% | 39.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 13.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.81 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Davidson | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.23 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 39.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 21.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.0% | 31.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.0% | 39.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.1% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.5% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.8% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Davidson schedule · San Diego schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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