Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Butler 36, San Diego 25.2 at Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Butler wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.8 points and 61.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
San Diego is 2-3, scoring 30.4 and allowing 41.4 points per game (-11 per game). Butler is 4-1, scoring 36.6 and allowing 24.4 points per game (+12.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego by 12 and Butler by 33 about 80% of the time.
Butler gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Butler by about 8.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: San Diego 10, Butler 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.2 points and the total by 10.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego / Butler) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego -2.5 → San Diego -1.5 | 57.5 → 61.5 | -154 / +123 |
| DraftKings | San Diego -2.5 → San Diego -1.5 | 57.5 → 61.5 | -154 / +123 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Butler win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Butler -11 | 61.1 | 76% |
| Market consensus | San Diego -1.5 | 61.5 | 43% |
| Blended projection | Butler -0.5 | 61.4 | 51% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Butler win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 43% · difference +34 pts
- Margin
- model Butler -10.8 · market San Diego -1.5 · difference +12.3 pts (Butler view)
- Total
- model 61.1 · market 61.5 · difference -0.4
Model margin is 12.3 pts more toward Butler than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego 25.2, Butler 36.0 | Butler 76%right winner | 20.2 | 10.1 |
| New formula | San Diego 25.0, Butler 35.3 | Butler 75%right winner | 20.7 | 9.2 |
Final: San Diego 10, Butler 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego vs Butler: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San Diego | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 25.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.54 | 5.37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 5.95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1 | 179.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.9 | 166.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.3 | 153.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.3 | 187.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 0.55 |
| Sacks per game | 3.08 | 2.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 1.18 |
| Stat | San Diego | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 41.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 13.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7% | 10.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 64.5 |
| Stat | San Diego | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 41.9% |
| Passing success rate | 39.2% | 41.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 16.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 34.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.0% | 44.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 42.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego schedule · Butler schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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