Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Washington 32.6, Cal Poly 27.6 at Roos Field in Week 4. That is a lean: Eastern Washington wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 60.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Cal Poly is 2-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-0.5 per game). Eastern Washington is 1-3, scoring 25 and allowing 36.8 points per game (-11.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cal Poly by 18 and Eastern Washington by 28 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Washington by about 2.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Cal Poly 31, Eastern Washington 27. Cal Poly won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cal Poly / Eastern Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Washington -3 → Eastern Washington -3.5 | 59.5 → 58.5 | +165 / -209 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Washington -3 → Eastern Washington -3.5 | 59.5 → 58.5 | +165 / -209 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Washington -5 | 60.2 | 63% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Washington -3.5 | 58.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Washington -4 | 58.7 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Washington win probability
- model 63% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Washington -5 · market Eastern Washington -3.5 · difference +1.5 pts (Eastern Washington view)
- Total
- model 60.2 · market 58.5 · difference +1.7
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Eastern Washington than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cal Poly 27.6, Eastern Washington 32.6 | Eastern Washington 63%wrong winner | 9.0 | 2.2 |
| New formula | Cal Poly 27.1, Eastern Washington 32.3 | Eastern Washington 64%wrong winner | 9.3 | 1.4 |
Final: Cal Poly 31, Eastern Washington 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cal Poly vs Eastern Washington: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Cal Poly | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.5 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.5 | 30.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.17 | 5.12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 6.25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.2 | 141.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 263.8 | 215.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.2 | 198.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 254.5 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 2.25 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 38.1% | 36.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 39.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 10.1% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8% | 16.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.92 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.29 | 3.60 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8 | 69.8 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.1% | 37.7% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 34.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.0% | 54.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.7% | 52.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cal Poly schedule · Eastern Washington schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.