Matchup analysis
Our model projects Montana State 43, Cal Poly 15 at Bobcat Stadium (MT) in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Montana State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28 points and 58.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Cal Poly is 4-5 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-3.5 per game). Montana State is 7-1 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.5 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+19.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana State by 5 and Montana State by 51 about 80% of the time.
Montana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana State by about 25.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Cal Poly vs Montana State: stat comparison
| Stat | Cal Poly | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9 | 39.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.4 | 20.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.34 | 6.97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.04 | 5.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.0 | 209.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.7 | 230.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 190.0 | 141.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.1 | 235.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.22 | 0.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.56 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.17 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 42.5% | 48.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 41.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 11.0% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0% | 9.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.88 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43 | 2.22 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.9 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8% | 52.5% |
| Passing success rate | 42.2% | 52.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 14.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 34.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.1% | 24.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.6% | 45.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.6% | 37.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.1% | 55.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.4% | 48.5% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cal Poly schedule · Montana State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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