Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Arizona 41.8, Portland State 23.3 at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Northern Arizona wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.5 points and 65 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Portland State is 2-4, scoring 23.5 and allowing 45 points per game (-21.5 per game). Northern Arizona is 5-2, scoring 30.7 and allowing 30.9 points per game (-0.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Portland State by 4 and Northern Arizona by 41 about 80% of the time.
Northern Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Arizona by about 16.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Portland State 25, Northern Arizona 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.5 points and the total by 2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Portland State / Northern Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northern Arizona -17.5 | 61.5 → 63.5 | +660 / -1180 |
| DraftKings | Northern Arizona -17.5 | 61.5 → 63.5 | +660 / -1180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Arizona -18.5 | 65.0 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Northern Arizona -17.5 | 63.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | Northern Arizona -18 | 63.3 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Arizona win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Arizona -18.5 · market Northern Arizona -17.5 · difference +1.0 pts (Northern Arizona view)
- Total
- model 65.0 · market 63.5 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Northern Arizona than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Portland State 23.3, Northern Arizona 41.8 | Northern Arizona 89%right winner | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| New formula | Portland State 22.4, Northern Arizona 40.9 | Northern Arizona 89%right winner | 5.4 | 0.3 |
Final: Portland State 25, Northern Arizona 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Portland State vs Northern Arizona: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Portland State | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.2 | 31.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 42.7 | 31.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 6.08 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.25 | 6.81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 155.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.4 | 256.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 265.2 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.5 | 251.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Portland State | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.1% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.87 | 3.97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.30 | 4.39 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 67.8 |
| Stat | Portland State | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.0% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 29.6% | 22.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.8% | 35.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5% | 34.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.2% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.5% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.1% | 68.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Portland State schedule · Northern Arizona schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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