Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona 46.7, Northern Arizona 11.1 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Arizona wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.5 points and 57.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northern Arizona is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 27 points per game (+7 per game). Arizona has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Northern Arizona plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Arizona's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona by 13 and Arizona by 58 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona by about 33.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Arizona 7, Arizona 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 15.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Arizona / Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -31.5 → Arizona -32.5 | 57.5 → 59 | +1800 / -8250 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -31.5 → Arizona -33.5 | 56.5 → 59.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | Arizona -31.5 | 58.5 | +1600 / -10000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -35.5 | 57.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -32.5 | 59.0 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -33 | 59.0 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -35.5 · market Arizona -32.5 · difference +3.0 pts (Arizona view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 59 · difference -1.2
Model margin is 3.0 pts more toward Arizona than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Arizona 11.1, Arizona 46.7 | Arizona 99%right winner | 7.5 | 15.8 |
| New formula | Northern Arizona 10.9, Arizona 47.6 | Arizona 98%right winner | 8.7 | 16.5 |
Final: Northern Arizona 7, Arizona 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Arizona vs Arizona: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.7 | 31.5#30 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3 | 19.3#21 |
| Yards per play | 6.08 | 6.14#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.81 | 5.10#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.8 | 175.0#63 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6 | 248.4#47 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.4 | 151.1#49 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.3 | 182.2#21 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 0.92#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 2.08#3 |
| Sacks per game | 1.45 | 1.46#107 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 2.23#98 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.06#48 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | -0.11#13 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 42.6%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 39.2%#38 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 13.3%#42 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7% | 8.9%#7 |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 13.5%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 11.8%#65 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97 | 3.75#91 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.39 | 3.73#52 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 35#2 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | own 28#48 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 68.9#39 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.06#48 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.06#57 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.01#67 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.23#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 42.2%#89 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 43.0%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0% | 18.8%#82 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 31.3%#58 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.5% | 25.3%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.9% | 40.7%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 35.7%#25 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.8% | 51.8%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 64.7%#100 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Arizona schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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