Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Arizona 32.2, Eastern Washington 26.6 at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Week 1. That is a lean: Northern Arizona wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Eastern Washington has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Northern Arizona has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Washington by 17 and Northern Arizona by 28 about 80% of the time.
Northern Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Arizona by about 3.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Washington 27, Northern Arizona 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 2.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Washington / Northern Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northern Arizona -3 → Northern Arizona -5.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +189 / -242 |
| DraftKings | Northern Arizona -3 → Northern Arizona -5.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | +189 / -242 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Arizona -5.5 | 58.8 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Northern Arizona -5.5 | 55.5 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Northern Arizona -5.5 | 56.1 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Arizona win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Arizona -5.6 · market Northern Arizona -5.5 · difference +0.1 pts (Northern Arizona view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 55.5 · difference +3.3
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Washington 26.6, Northern Arizona 32.2 | Northern Arizona 64%right winner | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| New formula | Eastern Washington 22.6, Northern Arizona 36.0 | Northern Arizona 78%right winner | 6.4 | 2.4 |
Final: Eastern Washington 27, Northern Arizona 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Washington vs Northern Arizona: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4 | 31.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2 | 31.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.12 | 6.08 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25 | 6.81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.9 | 155.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.3 | 256.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.4 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.3 | 251.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 36.9% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 15.7% |
| Havoc rate | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.60 | 4.39 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8 | 67.8 |
| Stat | Eastern Washington | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 35.3% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8% | 22.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.1% | 35.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8% | 34.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.3% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.5% | 68.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Washington schedule · Northern Arizona schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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