Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana State 40.3, Eastern Washington 19.5 at Roos Field in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Montana State wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.9 points and 59.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Montana State is 5-1, scoring 37 and allowing 18.3 points per game (+18.7 per game). Eastern Washington is 2-5, scoring 28 and allowing 35.6 points per game (-7.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana State by 43 and Eastern Washington by 2 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Montana State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Montana State 56, Eastern Washington 20. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.1 points and the total by 16.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Montana State / Eastern Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana State -19.5 → Montana State -20.5 | 65.5 → 64.5 | -1360 / +720 |
| DraftKings | Montana State -19.5 → Montana State -20.5 | 65.5 → 64.5 | -1360 / +720 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana State -21 | 59.8 | 9% |
| Market consensus | Montana State -20.5 | 64.5 | 12% |
| Blended projection | Montana State -20.5 | 63.9 | 8% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Washington win probability
- model 9% · market (no-vig) 12% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Montana State -20.9 · market Montana State -20.5 · difference -0.4 pts (Eastern Washington view)
- Total
- model 59.8 · market 64.5 · difference -4.7
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Montana State 40.3, Eastern Washington 19.5 | Montana State 91%right winner | 15.1 | 16.2 |
| New formula | Montana State 40.9, Eastern Washington 18.0 | Montana State 93%right winner | 13.0 | 17.1 |
Final: Montana State 56, Eastern Washington 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Montana State vs Eastern Washington: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Montana State | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.9 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0 | 30.2 |
| Yards per play | 7.07 | 5.12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48 | 6.25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.4 | 141.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.0 | 215.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.9 | 198.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.3 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.47 | 1.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 2.25 |
| Stat | Montana State | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | -0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 51.7% | 36.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 39.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 10.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 16.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.12 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.65 | 3.60 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 69.8 |
| Stat | Montana State | Eastern Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2% | 37.7% |
| Passing success rate | 52.9% | 35.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1% | 22.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 34.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.7% | 54.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 28.2% | 52.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana State schedule · Eastern Washington schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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