Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nevada 34, Montana State 18 at Mackay Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Nevada wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Montana State is 2-0, scoring 52.5 and allowing 12 points per game (+40.5 per game). Nevada is 1-0, scoring 49 and allowing 14 points per game (+35 per game).
Montana State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Nevada's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana State by 7 and Nevada by 39 about 80% of the time.
Nevada gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nevada by about 13.9. The game is on CW.
Result: Montana State 20, Nevada 7. Montana State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 29 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Montana State / Nevada) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana State -4 → Montana State -5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | -192.5 / +162.5 |
| Bovada | Montana State -3.5 → Montana State -5.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | -180 / +155 |
| DraftKings | Montana State -4.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | -205 / +170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nevada win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nevada -16 | 51.9 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Montana State -5 | 51.5 | 37% |
| Blended projection | Montana State -1.5 | 52.2 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nevada win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference +49 pts
- Margin
- model Nevada -16 · market Montana State -5 · difference +21.0 pts (Nevada view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 51.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 21.0 pts more toward Nevada than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Montana State 18.0, Nevada 34.0 | Nevada 85%wrong winner | 29.0 | 24.9 |
| New formula | Montana State 31.6, Nevada 26.0 | Montana State 63%right winner | 7.4 | 30.6 |
Final: Montana State 20, Nevada 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Montana State vs Nevada: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Montana State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.9 | 17.6#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0 | 27.5#87 |
| Yards per play | 7.07 | 5.32#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48 | 5.94#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.4 | 165.3#73 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.0 | 152.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.9 | 160.6#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.3 | 223.3#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.47 | 1.75#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 | 0.92#87 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.50#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 1.50#40 |
| Stat | Montana State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | -0.13#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.03#84 |
| Success rate | 51.7% | 37.0%#124 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 43.3%#93 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 11.6%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 11.2%#41 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 10.7%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 13.2%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.12 | 2.95#134 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.65 | 4.34#115 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | own 30#55 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | own 29#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 59.6#131 |
| Stat | Montana State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.02#78 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28 | -0.31#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.07#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | -0.01#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2% | 36.8%#125 |
| Passing success rate | 52.9% | 35.6%#120 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1% | 17.2%#51 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9% | 24.2%#125 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1% | 27.6%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 34.2%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7% | 39.9%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.7% | 46.4%#128 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 28.2% | 59.7%#67 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana State schedule · Nevada schedule · all Week 2 projections
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