Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Butler 28.4, Georgetown (KY) 24.5 at Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl in Week 1. That is a lean: Butler wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 52.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Georgetown (KY) has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Butler has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgetown (KY) by 19 and Butler by 26 about 80% of the time.
Butler gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Butler by about 1.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Georgetown (KY) 23, Butler 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 2.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Georgetown (KY) 24.5, Butler 28.4 | Butler 60%right winner | 0.1 | 2.9 |
| New formula | Georgetown (KY) 19.2, Butler 32.8 | Butler 79%right winner | 9.6 | 2.0 |
Final: Georgetown (KY) 23, Butler 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Georgetown (KY) schedule · Butler schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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