Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morehead State 26.2, Ohio Dominican 26.1 at Phil Simms Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Morehead State wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Ohio Dominican has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Morehead State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio Dominican by 22 and Morehead State by 23 about 80% of the time.
Morehead State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ohio Dominican would be favoured by 2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ohio Dominican 42, Morehead State 40. Ohio Dominican won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 2.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio Dominican 26.1, Morehead State 26.2 | Morehead State 50%wrong winner | 2.1 | 29.8 |
| New formula | Ohio Dominican 23.1, Morehead State 28.6 | Morehead State 63%wrong winner | 7.5 | 30.3 |
Final: Ohio Dominican 42, Morehead State 40. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Ohio Dominican schedule · Morehead State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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