Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morehead State 26.2, Kentucky Christian 26.1 at Phil Simms Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Morehead State wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 52.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Kentucky Christian has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Morehead State is 0-1, scoring 40 and allowing 42 points per game (-2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky Christian by 22 and Morehead State by 23 about 80% of the time.
Morehead State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Kentucky Christian would be favoured by 2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Kentucky Christian 24, Morehead State 75. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 50.9 points and the total by 46.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kentucky Christian 26.1, Morehead State 26.2 | Morehead State 50%right winner | 50.9 | 46.8 |
| New formula | Kentucky Christian 26.1, Morehead State 34.8 | Morehead State 69%right winner | 42.4 | 38.1 |
Final: Kentucky Christian 24, Morehead State 75. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kentucky Christian vs Morehead State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Kentucky Christian | Morehead State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 21.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 45.0 | 29.8 |
| Yards per play | 8.48 | 5.78 |
| Yards per play allowed | 9.02 | 6.39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.0 | 144.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 258.0 | 196.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 276.0 | 232.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 319.0 | 183.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Stat | Kentucky Christian | Morehead State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 40.7% | 40.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 50.7% | 48.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1% | 14.9% |
| Havoc rate | 10.2% | 11.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.90 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 46.0 | 59.0 |
| Stat | Kentucky Christian | Morehead State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27 | +0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.9% | 39.0% |
| Passing success rate | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 14.3% | 33.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 47.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kentucky Christian schedule · Morehead State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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