Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Morehead State 33.5, Davidson 31.5 at Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Morehead State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 64.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Morehead State is 1-5, scoring 25.8 and allowing 46.8 points per game (-21 per game). Davidson is 2-5, scoring 22.4 and allowing 38.4 points per game (-16 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morehead State by 25 and Davidson by 21 about 80% of the time.
Davidson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Morehead State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Morehead State 31, Davidson 34. Davidson won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morehead State / Davidson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Davidson -1.5 → Morehead State -1.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | -116 / -107 |
| DraftKings | Davidson -1.5 → Morehead State -1.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | -116 / -107 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Davidson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Morehead State -2 | 64.9 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Morehead State -1.5 | 57.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | Morehead State -1.5 | 58.1 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Davidson win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Morehead State -2 · market Morehead State -1.5 · difference -0.5 pts (Davidson view)
- Total
- model 64.9 · market 57.5 · difference +7.4
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Morehead State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morehead State 33.5, Davidson 31.5 | Morehead State 55%wrong winner | 5.0 | 0.1 |
| New formula | Morehead State 32.2, Davidson 31.2 | Morehead State 53%wrong winner | 4.1 | 1.6 |
Final: Morehead State 31, Davidson 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morehead State vs Davidson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morehead State | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 18.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 39.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.78 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 7.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.8 | 133.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.3 | 190.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 232.8 | 246.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9 | 237.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 52.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.19 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.0% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 36.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 36.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 50.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morehead State schedule · Davidson schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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