Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Austin Peay 33.8, West Georgia 22.6 at University Stadium (GA) in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Austin Peay wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 56.4 combined points.
Austin Peay is 5-2, scoring 36.3 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+16.7 per game). West Georgia is 1-5, scoring 18.8 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-13.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Austin Peay by 34 and West Georgia by 11 about 80% of the time.
West Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Austin Peay is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Austin Peay 24, West Georgia 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.8 points and the total by 22.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Austin Peay / West Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Austin Peay -21 → Austin Peay -19.5 | 55.5 → 53.5 | -1680 / +810 |
| DraftKings | Austin Peay -21 → Austin Peay -19.5 | 55.5 → 53.5 | -1680 / +810 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Austin Peay -11 | 56.4 | 23% |
| Market consensus | Austin Peay -19.5 | 53.5 | 10% |
| Blended projection | Austin Peay -18 | 54.2 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Georgia win probability
- model 23% · market (no-vig) 10% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Austin Peay -11.2 · market Austin Peay -19.5 · difference +8.3 pts (West Georgia view)
- Total
- model 56.4 · market 53.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 8.3 pts more toward West Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Austin Peay 33.8, West Georgia 22.6 | Austin Peay 77%right winner | 2.8 | 22.4 |
| New formula | Austin Peay 32.8, West Georgia 23.0 | Austin Peay 74%right winner | 4.2 | 21.8 |
Final: Austin Peay 24, West Georgia 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Austin Peay vs West Georgia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Austin Peay | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.1 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 21.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.90 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.58 | 5.46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.7 | 228.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.6 | 195.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 142.2 | 154.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.3 | 209.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 1.55 |
| Stat | Austin Peay | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 40.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 37.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 12.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.0% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.77 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74 | 2.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.2 | 75.8 |
| Stat | Austin Peay | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1% | 41.5% |
| Passing success rate | 46.0% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.1% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.0% | 38.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.3% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.7% | 39.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Austin Peay schedule · West Georgia schedule · all Week 7 projections
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